Republican candidates maintain commanding leads in Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial and Senate races despite a surprising reversal among Hispanic voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, according to a new NBC South Florida poll showing the limits of Democratic momentum in the Sunshine State.
GOP Holds Double-Digit Advantages
Congressman Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by seven percentage points in the governor’s race, polling at 48 percent compared to Jolly’s 41 percent. The Naples representative has maintained a significant financial advantage throughout the campaign. In the Senate contest, incumbent Republican Ashley Moody stands ten points ahead of Democratic challenger Angie Nixon, with 50 percent support versus Nixon’s 40 percent. Nixon, aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, secured her nomination after an unexpected August primary victory over Alexander Vindman.
Hispanic Voters Turn Away From Trump
Florida’s influential Hispanic voting bloc shows signs of moving away from Trump despite Republican candidates maintaining comfortable leads among these voters. Donalds holds a narrow 48-43 advantage over Jolly with Hispanic voters, while Moody leads Nixon 47-40 among the same demographic. Trump’s job approval rating sits underwater with Hispanic voters at 49 percent disapproval versus 45 percent approval. This represents a sharp shift from 2024, when Trump won Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by approximately 11 points, reversing a historically Democratic-leaning region that Joe Biden carried by seven points in 2020.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene pointed to recent Florida special election victories as evidence of recovery with Hispanic voters. Democrats attribute the shift partly to dissatisfaction with Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement policies and concerns about rising costs. Among all Florida likely voters, Trump’s job performance splits evenly at 48 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval.
Pocketbook Issues Drive Voter Concerns
Inflation and cost of living dominate voter priorities, with 30 percent identifying these economic concerns as most likely to influence their votes. The direction of the state or country ranks second at 17 percent among all voters, while immigration enforcement claims third place overall at 16 percent. Hispanic voters specifically rank property taxes as their third priority at 13 percent, with immigration enforcement fourth at 12 percent. Support for Trump administration policies allowing local cooperation with federal immigration officials breaks sharply along party lines, with 85 percent of Republicans supporting the measure compared to just 18 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents.
Property Tax Battle Takes Center Stage
Term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis and the state Republican Party back Amendment 3, a ballot measure proposing increased property tax exemptions on the first $250,000 of home values. The property tax issue has emerged as a central concern in these midterm elections, particularly among Hispanic communities concentrated in South Florida where housing costs continue climbing.